AI Search Traffic-at-Risk Estimator

AI answers are taking clicks. How many of yours?

Our site gets organic search visits a month. About come from questions and research searches, and each visit is worth to us.

AI adoption scenario
Organic revenue at risk
—/ yr

— visits a month (— of your organic traffic) could stop reaching your site because AI Overviews and chat assistants answer the question first.

Could win back—per year with Search Everywhere Optimization
Net exposure—per year after win-back

Every square is 1% of your organic visits

Orange squares are visits that AI answers intercept. Green squares are the share you can win back by getting cited in AI Overviews and recommended by ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini and Claude.

Still reaching your siteClicks that AI answers don't absorb—
Lost to AI OverviewsGoogle answers the question on the results page—
Lost to chat assistantsSearches that move to ChatGPT, Perplexity and others—
Won backAI Overview citations and AI assistant referrals—
Organic value today—
 
At risk from AI—
 
Won back—
 
Net exposure—
 
19%AI referral
conversion
A Connection Model client

Visitors from AI assistants convert at more than 3× the rate of organic search

A Connection Model client converts 19% of visitors who arrive from AI assistants like ChatGPT, Perplexity and Claude. The same site converts about 5.6% of organic search visitors. By the time someone clicks through from an AI answer, they've already done their research.

AI referrals19%
Organic search5.6%
At your organic conversion rate of , the same lift would put AI-referred visitors at —.

Model settings

Each scenario loads research-based defaults. Change any value to match what you see in your own Search Console and GA4 data.

Informational searches

%
%
%

Commercial & local searches

%
%
%

Win-back

%
%
×
Monthly visits Today Lost to AI Overviews Lost to chat Total at risk
Informational
Commercial & local
Total

How the estimate works

  1. Your organic visits are split into informational and commercial & local searches using the share you enter.
  2. For each group, lost visits = visits × (1 − (1 − AI Overview rate × click drop) × (1 − chat assistant loss)). The two effects compound. They are not simply added.
  3. Revenue at risk = lost visits × value per visit × 12.
  4. Win-back = lost visits × recapture rate. Visits recaptured as AI referrals are valued at your value per visit × the conversion lift. Visits recaptured as clicks from AI Overview citations are valued at your normal value per visit.

This is a directional estimate for planning, not a forecast. Actual impact depends on your industry, your rankings, and how often Google shows AI Overviews for your keywords.

Research behind the defaults

  • Ahrefs (Feb 2026, 300,000 keywords): when an AI Overview appears, the top-ranking page gets a 58% lower click-through rate. Ahrefs' earlier 2025 study found 34.5%. The Conservative and Moderate scenarios use these two figures.
  • Seer Interactive (3,100+ queries, Jun 2024 – Sep 2025): organic CTR fell 61% on queries with AI Overviews, and sites cited inside the AI Overview earned 35% more organic clicks than sites that were not cited.
  • AI Overview coverage is highest in informational categories such as healthcare, education and B2B technology (about 80% or more), and much lower on transactional searches.
  • The 19% AI referral conversion rate comes from a Connection Model client's GA4 data. The model uses a more conservative 2× lift by default, which you can change in Model settings.
Search Everywhere Optimization

Get cited where your customers now ask.

We'll check how your brand shows up in Google AI Overviews, ChatGPT, Perplexity and Gemini, and give you a prioritized plan to win back the visits at risk.

 
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Whether your website needs a routine tune-up or an extreme makeover, we have the design talent, development experience, and integration knowledge to help you create demand and drive more conversions from existing website traffic. Learn More »

(starting at $2500)

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Google AdWords, Facebook, LinkedIn, Remarketing... so many choices, but which ones will help you drive qualified leads for your business? Together we'll answer those questions and build a Lead Generation Machine. Learn More »

(starting at $1500/mo.)

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Digital Brand Management

We help companies create their digital brand, then take it deep and wide across the entire spectrum of social media and publishers to create reach and ensure brand consistency and value. Learn More »

(starting at $1000/mo.)

Content-creation

Organic Search & Content

Content can be the fuel that drives organic growth when done right. We'll conduct interviews, write articles, blogs, create infographics and build interactive polls and calculators to increase engagement within your prospect ecosystem.

(starting at $1000/mo.)

What Our Clients Are Saying

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“Connection Model is a terrific full service firm for all digital strategy needs with hands on owners who are attentive and responsive.”

- Rick Shamberg

5/5
Andrea

“I have worked with Connection Model for 10 years now. They are strategic thinkers that get the work done. And, with their eye placed firmly on continuous improvement, they exceed expectations time and time again.”

- Andrea Pirrotti-Dranchak

5/5
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“The Connection Model Team is innovative, timely, humble, and great at educating their clients if the need arises.”

- Jody Coles

5/5

Connection Model has 7 reviews with an average rating of 5.0 stars on a 5.0 scale. Third-Party Source: Birdeye

agency partnerships
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HubSpot Platinum Agency Partner

Connection Model was the first agency to achieve Platinum Agency Partner status, and returned to Platinum in 2019, meeting HubSpot’s rigorous criteria for client retention, active engaged clients on the platform, as well as new business. We continue to steer our top clients toward the most effective and flexible CRM platform on the market.

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Drift Certified Partner

The Connection Model team has embraced Conversational Marketing from day one, becoming one of Drift’s top partners since Q2 2018. We continue to see increased qualified leads for clients across the board from implementing effective and engaging conversations on their websites, leading to higher sales.

Schema App Trusted Agency Partner

Schema App Trusted Partner

Dozens of clients trust Schema App and Connection Model to manage their schema markup on tens of thousands of pages per month. Schema App has the most comprehensive schema markup solution in this important, emerging area of Search Engine Optimization.

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UpCity Digital Agency Excellence Award

“The strength of our marketplace is built on the credibility of truly excellent providers like Connection Model,” said Dan Olson, CEO of UpCity. “We are pleased to honor Connection Model with a Local Excellence Award in Seattle.” UpCity helps over 225,000 businesses each month seeking to compare services from over 35,000 providers in over 600 cities in North America. Connection Model was named to the top 20 list for Seattle due to 5-star client reviews and a track record of results.

Real-time Marketing Dashboards Prove Results

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Pricing starting at $250/month

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